The power of a rolling forecast
Imagine you’re hiking a trail in the mountains. Instead of just checking the weather forecast once in the morning, you k...
While the deficit for this year is expected to be $4.2bn, the Treasurer announced return to surplus of some $7.1bn estimated for 2019-20. At least 1/3 of that forecasted surplus can be attributed to the collapse of the iron ore tailings dam in Brazil and the unexpected increase in the global price of iron ore this has caused which in turn has boosted government revenue.
This point is to highlight how fragile the budget forecast process can be.
2017-2018 | 2018-2019 (fcast) | 2019-2020 (fcast) | |
Budget (deficit) surplus - bn. | (10.10) | (4.20) | 7.1 |
As % of GDP | (0.5) | (0.2) | 0.4 |
Real GDP Growth | 2.80 | 2.25 | 2.75 |
Unemployment | 5.40 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
CPI | 2.10 | 1.50 | 2.75 |
Check out our 2018 budget summaries:
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Sources:
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